Morning Report: Markets cautious ahead of data deluge

• This morning financial markets have a negative bias ahead of a very busy day on the economic calendar. The main item is the expected rate cut from the ECB from 1% to 0.75%. This rate cut is not guaranteed however, with the ECB making the move under external pressure from European leaders. The press conference could be just as important with traders talking up the potential for an extension of the LTRO program.
• Next up we have US ADP Non Farm employment change data which often acts as a warm up for the big Non Farm employment data due tomorrow. Analysts are expecting a slight drop in job growth.
• As if this wasn’t enough, we also have bond auctions for Spain and France with the Bank of England also releasing a rate statement. This is unlikely to be a quiet day.
• The Japanese yen is the currency of choice so far this morning as traders seek out safe harbours for their money. The USD/ JPY is down 0.31%.

• Other yen pairs are leading the fallers, with the AUD/ JPY off by 0.42% and the EUR/ JPY down by 0.29%.

• We have German factory orders at 11.00 with an increase in activity expected.
• The Bank of England rate statement follows at 12.00, with the ECB statement at 12.45 followed by the press conference at 13.30.
• US ADP Non Farm Employment change is at 13.15 with unemployment claims at 13.30 and non manufacturing PMI at 15.00.

Bet Idea: 

• The USD/ JPY has been range bound for the last few days as traders switch between the two safe harbours. A breakout seems likely with all the data due in the next couple of days with the recent trading patterns giving the pair a downside bias.

• A good way to play this might be a TOUCH trade predicting that the USD/ JPY will revisit the lows of its recent trading range at 79.15 in 1 days time (Friday’s close). This could return 151% if successful. 

Summary: